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ORIGINAL PAPER
METHODOLOGY OF MULTI-MODEL FORECASTING OF EXPENDITURE IN THE ASPECT OF ECONOMIC SECURITY
Szymon MITKOW 1, A-F
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Grzegorz MIZURA 3, A-B,D
 
 
 
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1
Wojskowa Akademia Techniczna Wydział Bezpieczeństwa, Logistyki i Zarządzania
 
2
Wojskowa Akademia Techniczna Wydział Bezpieczeństwa, Logistyki i Zarządzania Instytut Logistyki
 
3
Ministerstwo Obrony Narodowej Departament Kadr
 
 
A - Research concept and design; B - Collection and/or assembly of data; C - Data analysis and interpretation; D - Writing the article; E - Critical revision of the article; F - Final approval of article
 
 
Publication date: 2020-12-31
 
 
SLW 2020;53(2):59-72
 
KEYWORDS
ABSTRACT
The study presents the methodology of multi-model forecasting of expenses in terms of economic security. The research began with an analysis of the literature on: planning, forecasting, expenses, economic security and the COVID-19 pandemic. The article analyzes the time series of expenses incurred by the research subject in terms of detecting the regularities governing the phenomenon in question. The result of the research was the detection of the trend and seasonality on a monthly basis. The analysis of the literature and own experience allowed for the selection of three models to forecast the considered expenditure for the future. The constructed models were analyzed and assessed through the use of the MAPE measure in terms of selecting the most favorable model for forecasting raw data. The article ends with a summary and conclusions.
PEER REVIEW INFORMATION
Article has been screened for originality
 
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ISSN:1508-5430
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